EU accession talks?

With Putin’s invasion of Ukraine, the world has, once again, fundamentally changed.  This is a major event in world history and the effects will be felt for decades. 

Life – outside of the war zone and those most affected by it – must go on.  In light of this, EU foreign policy supremo Josep Borrell was in Macedonia in mid-March to talk about the war and EU accession talks. I watched his press conference and the Q&A afterwards; we have seen this movie before seemingly 1000 times before.

These are highly unusual times (though, coming right after Covid, it seems “unusual” is becoming the normal setting for the world).  While Ukraine is demanding EU membership now and the EU seems likely to give Ukraine at least a date to start talks, it is highly unlikely that any talks could begin at anytime soon.  Sweden and Finland, non-NATO members, are now, at a minimum, looking at exploring NATO membership and Kosovo is now demanding NATO membership.  And in all of this Macedonia (and Albania which is tied to Macedonia in this endeavor), asks when will we be given a date? 

Into this mix Borrell comes to Macedonia and says that now is the time to “reinvigorate the enlargement process” of the EU.  Which is all fine and good except that, besides hearing that from other EU officials for about the past 15 years, Borrell also, and once again, said two words Macedonians have heard for decades: “mutually acceptable.” Though in this case it is regarding Bulgaria and not Greece.  Yes, he said, both Macedonia and Bulgaria must come to a “mutually acceptable” solution on Bulgaria’s demands.  This is code meaning that Macedonia must further debase itself and agree to whatever it is that Bulgaria wants which is, essentially, denying its own identity and language. 

The demands of Bulgaria are not only wrong, but especially at this critical time, they are a distraction from the fact that there is a major war in Europe and innocent children, women, and men are being shot, bombed, and blown up.  And yet Bulgaria persists.

If the EU truly wants to “reinvigorate the enlargement process” and get talks started with Macedonia and Albania, then it cannot allow Bulgaria to continue with its childish demands.  And yet we all know it will.  On the one hand, there is enlargement fatigue.  On the other hand, there is a major war in Europe right now.  And because of this, the EU will, once again, make the assumption that it is easier to lean on the party more willing to break first; and they believe that to be Macedonia.

Macedonians are already weary of waiting, tired of the empty promises (“EU accession talks tomorrow,” and when tomorrow comes, it’s “EU accession talks tomorrow,” ad nauseum) and doubting the sincerity of the men and women and institutions of the EU.  And yet Macedonians still, by overwhelming majorities, want to join the EU.  In March of 2010 92 percent said they were in favor; this past November, that number was 84 percent.  It has moved slightly up and slightly down, but it has not sunk below 71 percent during these years of polling.  

But here’s the rub: in that same November poll from last year, Macedonians were asked what Macedonia should do vis-à-vis the situation with Bulgaria.  Only 9 percent said Macedonia should give into Bulgaria’s demands; 35 percent said Macedonia should not to anything and that the EU should pressure Bulgaria.  A full 26 percent said Macedonia should not accept any request and should stop talking with Bulgaria; and 24 percent said Macedonia should continue the talks but without jeopardizing its positions.

So, what does one do with such seemingly contradictory positions, wanting to join the EU and yet not wanting to give into the demands of a churlish neighbor?  This was the place Macedonia was in with NATO; wanting to join, by large majorities, but not wanting to give away Macedonia’s good name and identity.  And when given a chance to vote on it, it failed. And yet the Macedonian government, together with its handlers at the State Department and in certain EU institutions, managed to – using Johannes Hahn’s “Balkan tactics,” rammed it through with Zaev and his government issuing threats, arrests and bribes.  I suppose the “new” government of Kovachevski will try the same thing.  But will Macedonians allow this to happen again?  

Borrell said “I know you have certain expectations and rightly so. We need to start formal negotiations for the accession of Macedonia and Albania as soon as possible and I hope that will be possible at the next intergovernmental conference.”

But hope is not a strategy.

On the other hand, there are alternatives to EU membership right here right now and at the price of giving away what is left of Macedonia’s dignity.  They involve thinking, planning, hard work, resolve, and patience, and all of these are character traits that appear to be lacking in the current Macedonian government.