On Macedonian Matters

An open letter to my Macedonian friends and family

My dear Macedonian friends and family –

“When they want you silent, speak louder.”

Riley Gaines, American competitive swimmer and champion for girls in sports 

On May 14 I wrote an open letter to the “internationals who work with or in and report or write on Macedonia.”  Not that I expect them to read it, let alone respect it.  Today, May 16, an open letter to you.

Let me start by stating the obvious: I am not a lawyer.  I must assume that the legal minds and advisors in Macedonia are looking at the so-called Prespa “agreement” and trying to figure out ways to nullify or renegotiate it.  I do not know if that can be done – I hope so.  It’s a rotten “agreement” (never agreed to by the majority of Macedonians) and it was made “legal” through unconstitutional means, including threats from government officials, bribes, and actual arrests, all watched over and sanctioned by Western diplomats, bureaucrats, and politicians. Again, I’m no legal scholar, but I would think – given the vast array of legal venues and cases such as the 2011 verdict by the International Court of Justice (which ruled in Macedonia’s favor stating that Greece had violated the 1995 Interim Accord) and the fact that Greece has not ratified several aspects of it  – that there would be opportunities to use lawfare to thwart this mockery of the will of the Macedonians.  

Before I delve into the myriad ways in which the internationals will now extract their revenge on Macedonians for asserting their right to their identity, let me state that Macedonians will pay a price for this: but, then again, hasn’t Macedonia been paying a hefty sum for the past 30 years for asserting its name and identity?  How long has Macedonia been an EU candidate? (December 17, 2005 is the answer).  Macedonians already know that they have paid – and will continue to pay – a price for asserting that they are Macedonian, and European.  So be it.

So, herewith are some of the ways those internationals will exact their revenge on Macedonia.

First, political pressure – primarily from the international diplomats, bureaucrats, and politicians – will be brought to bear on the new government and president.  This will likely be subtle, through diplomatic channels, and, in general behind closed doors.  We saw some initial negative public reactions from the internationals on social media, the most extreme rhetoric coming from the governments in Bulgaria and Greece, which is to be expected, but that has calmed down, a bit.

Assuming that future Prime Minister Hristijan Mickoski and many in his new cabinet follow the example of President Gordana Siljanovska-Davkova, in refusing to utter the “N” word, we can then expect the political condemnations and rhetoric to ratchet up a notch, again with the Greek and Bulgarian governments being the loudest and angriest.  

What form this pressure will take is anyone’s guess, but it could include (and this list is not exhaustive): refusing to meet with the new government or president (especially outside of Macedonia); withholding financial aid or expertise; suspending current or future projects; withdrawing a handful of diplomats from Macedonia as a show of displeasure; giving a demarche to Macedonia’s diplomats accredited to EU capitals; Greece withdrawing their ambassador, etc.

Second, additional pressure from other internationals, such as NGOs, think tanks, academics, etc. will take the form of (and again, this is not limited): refusing invites to or cooperation with governmental and nongovernmental entities or individuals; suspension of current or future projects; and of course vociferous public condemnation on social media, etc.

Third, many in the international media outlets will, of course, continue portraying the new government and president as “authoritarian,” “extreme right-wing,” “nationalists,” and “pro-Russian,” all the while writing and reporting that Macedonia is “back-sliding,” “turning away from the West and Europe,” “embracing Russia,” and more.  They do this already, but will, like others, ratchet up their rhetoric.

Finally, another way in which the internationals – in this case however, President Joe Biden and his administration – could exact their revenge on Macedonia is almost unthinkable – but still within the realm of possibilities.  Consider this: On June 8, 2021, President Biden signed “Executive Order 14033—Blocking Property and Suspending Entry Into the United States of Certain Persons Contributing to the Destabilizing Situation in the Western Balkans.” In this Executive Order, President Joe Biden could “sanction” certain Macedonian Government officials if they are found “to be responsible for or complicit in, or to have directly or indirectly engaged in, a violation of, or an act that has obstructed or threatened the implementation of, any regional security, peace, cooperation, or mutual recognition agreement or framework or accountability mechanism related to the Western Balkans, including the Prespa Agreement of 2018; the Ohrid Framework Agreement of 2001….” and a bunch of other international agreements having their location and force in the former Yugoslavia or Albania. This according to Greek news media themanews.com.

The sanctions would include barring entry into the United States, seizure of any assets they currently have or control in the United States, and a black mark on their reputation.

This of course would be unprecedented – a US President sanctioning the President or Prime Minister of a NATO member state.  Vladimir Putin would be delighted to see this happen and it would severely weaken NATO, so I don’t see it happening, but again, still within the realm of possibilities.  (The idea of Macedonia being kicked out of NATO is nonexistent – there is no mechanism for kicking a member state out).

Granted, EU membership will now be at a standstill for Macedonia, but, then again, it is a standstill for everyone; the last time the EU admitted a new member was 2013 (Croatia) and there are some, such as German journalist Michael Martens (who writes for Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung), who has been covering the Balkans for 20 years, who believe there will be no more expansion due to internal issues within the EU.  For his explanation, have a listen here from 11:45.

How this all plays out is anyone’s guess but this will continue. There are civilizational problems facing the world today and yet many of our friends in the international community – who are largely responsible for this problem in the first place – are choosing to focus on the lack of utterance of a single word: north.

Since the so-called Prespa “agreement” was implemented and the Macedonian constitution illegally changed, Macedonians have felt the impact of these actions primarily through a general sense of loss of their name and identity, through the changes in passports, ID cards, currency, signage, websites, and in everything wherein Macedonia is replaced with “North Macedonia.” A national sense of loss in this way is no small thing as I wrote about in my letter to the internationals.  Now, with the internationals exacting their revenge on Macedonia and Macedonians for the non-use of “north” by government officials, how Macedonians will be individually affected is not yet known.

What is known, however, is this: Macedonians must not be silent but must speak louder.  I’ll be speaking – louder – with you.  

Your friend,

Jason Miko